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The International Conference on Multiphase Systems, ICMS'2000
Ufa, RUSSIA, June 15-17, 2000

Quantifying Uncertainties in Resources Estimate and Field Development Planning

Zolotukhin A. B.

Statoil, Stavanger University College, NORWAY

A hydrocarbon bearing formation represents a classic example of a system which description is associated with uncertainty. Quality and quantity of data at the exploration stages and early phases of field appraisal and field development planning is not sufficient for an adequate application of statistical analysis. Lack of data makes an overall estimation of resources and reserves by conventional methods more subjective and less reliable.

Methods of fuzzy and interval mathematics facilitate a non-conventional, fast emerging technique for handling uncertainties and estimating risk associated with investments/decisions within the uncertain data environment. Coupled with the fractal analysis technique this approach enables evaluation of potential resources of basins, petroleum provinces, regions, etc., and to estimate uncertainty of such evaluations. In the field development planning, economic evaluation and investment decisions methods of fuzzy and interval calculus have shown to be excellent tools to handle the input data uncertainties directly and for quantifying uncertainty of the output in a most natural way enabling to reduce the total number of justified scenarios and risk of subjective judgement.

The paper presents a brief overview on applications of the methods of fractal analysis and fuzzy mathematics to resource estimate and field development planning.